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The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States

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Abstract

We develop a methodology to estimate the cost of capital using credit registry microdata, and apply it to study capital allocation efficiency in the United States. Our measure incorporates the contractual interest rate, expected default probability, recovery rate, and expectations of future rates. We estimate three distinct rates: (i) the lender's discount rate, (ii) the firm's cost of capital, and (iii) the social cost of capital. We derive a sufficient statistic for misallocation based on the first and second moments of the social cost of capital. Dispersion in this rate captures both heterogeneity in lender discounting and the presence of financial frictions. Normal times feature modest amounts of misallocation, corresponding to an output loss of 0.5%. However, during the 2020-2021 period, misallocation increased to 1.1%, primarily due to the underpricing of riskier loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Julian Kozlowski & Jeremy Majerovitz, 2025. "The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States," Working Papers 2025-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:100099
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2025.013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost of capital; misallocation; macrofinance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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