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Long memory models of interest rates, the term structure, and variance bounds tests

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  • Gary S. Shea

Abstract

Variance bounds tests of the rational expectations hypothesis of the interest rate term structure are sensitive to the stochastic characterization of short-term interest rates used. When a long memory or fractional difference nonstationary time series model is used in preference to a mean stationary model, the rational expectations hypothesis is not rejected. Long memory models of interest rates are estimated and tested against alternatives. Their forecasting properties are also examined. Hypothesis tests are based upon bootstrapping (Monte Carlo) methodologies.

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  • Gary S. Shea, 1985. "Long memory models of interest rates, the term structure, and variance bounds tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 258, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 253-269, September.
    3. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    4. Brick, John R & Thompson, Howard E, 1978. "Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 93-103, March.
    5. Michener, Ronald W, 1982. "Variance Bounds in a Simple Model of Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 166-175, February.
    6. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    7. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    8. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-1176, December.
    9. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    10. Cargill, Thomas F, 1975. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Test of the Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 761-771, June.
    11. C. W. J. Granger & H. J. B. Rees, 1968. "Spectral Analysis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 67-76.
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