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A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • James H. Stock

Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Acomparison of the power of the two kinds of tests depends on what the alternative hypothesis is taken to be. By considering tests based on conditional volatility bounds, we show that if the alternative is that one could"beat the market" using a linear combination of known variables, then the regression tests are at least as powerful as the conditional volatility tests.If the application is to spot and forward markets, then the most powerful conditional volatility test turns out to be equivalent to the analogous regression test in terms of asymptotic power. In other applications,the volatility test will be less powerful than regression tests against our chosen alternative. However, these results are not inconsistent with the observation that volatility tests may be more powerful against other alternative hypoth-eses, such as that risk-averse investors are rationally maximizing the present discounted utility of future consumption,with a time-varying discount rate.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1105.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1105.

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Date of creation: Apr 1983
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Publication status: published as Frankel, Jeffrey A. and James H. Stock. "Regression Tests vs. Volatility Tests Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 6, 1987, pp. 49-56.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1105
Note: ITI IFM
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  1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  2. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-76, December.
  3. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  4. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 0564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
  6. LeRoy, Stephen F & LaCivita, C J, 1981. "Risk Aversion and the Dispersion of Asset Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 535-47, October.
  7. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  9. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Do We Really Know That Financial Markets Are Efficient?," NBER Working Papers 0994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert P. Flood, 1981. "Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 0625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Richard A. Meese & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1980. "Rational expectations, risk premia, and the market for spot and forward exchange," International Finance Discussion Papers 165, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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