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Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Jean Blanchard
  • Christopher G. Collins
  • Mohammad Jahan-Parvar
  • Thomas Pellet
  • Beth Anne Wilson

Abstract

This paper looks at the evolution of U.S. stock prices from the time of the Presidential elections to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than half of the increase in the aggregate U.S. stock prices from the presidential election to the end of 2017 can be attributed to higher actual and expected dividends. A general improvement in economic activity and a decrease in economic policy uncertainty around the world were the main factors behind the stock market increase. The prospect and the eventual passage of the corporate tax bill nevertheless played a role. And while part of the rise in stock returns came from a decrease in the equity risk premium, this decrease was relatively limited and returned the premium to the levels of the first half of the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Jean Blanchard & Christopher G. Collins & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Thomas Pellet & Beth Anne Wilson, 2018. "Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1235, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1235
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    7. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    8. Møller, Stig V. & Sander, Magnus, 2017. "Dividends, earnings, and predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 153-163.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    3. Shehu U.R. Aliyu, 2019. "Do Presidential Elections Affect Stock Market Returns In Nigeria?," West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, West African Monetary Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 40-56, June.
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    6. Clifford Paul Hallwood, 2021. "Correcting US payments imbalances: Taxing foreign holders of its treasury securities is better than import tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(8), pages 2228-2237, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dividends; Earnings; Equity returns; Equity premium; Gordon formula; Tax reform; U.S. presidential election;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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