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Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Jean Blanchard
  • Christopher G. Collins
  • Mohammad Jahan-Parvar
  • Thomas Pellet
  • Beth Anne Wilson

Abstract

This paper looks at the evolution of U.S. stock prices from the time of the Presidential elections to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than half of the increase in the aggregate U.S. stock prices from the presidential election to the end of 2017 can be attributed to higher actual and expected dividends. A general improvement in economic activity and a decrease in economic policy uncertainty around the world were the main factors behind the stock market increase. The prospect and the eventual passage of the corporate tax bill nevertheless played a role. And while part of the rise in stock returns came from a decrease in the equity risk premium, this decrease was relatively limited and returned the premium to the levels of the first half of the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Jean Blanchard & Christopher G. Collins & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Thomas Pellet & Beth Anne Wilson, 2018. "Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1235, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1235
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1235
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1235.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Møller, Stig V. & Sander, Magnus, 2017. "Dividends, earnings, and predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 153-163.
    4. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    5. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    6. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    7. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2019. "Do presidential elections affect stock market returns in Nigeria?," MPRA Paper 95466, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Aug 2019.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dividends; Earnings; Equity returns; Equity premium; Gordon formula; Tax reform; U.S. presidential election;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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