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The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment

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Abstract

We study the investment effects of the Russia-Ukraine war using a novel, text-based measure of firm-level exposure derived from earnings call transcripts. Combining this measure with financial statement data for over 6,500 firms across 50 countries, we show that exposure to the conflict led to sizable and persistent declines in corporate investment. Firms that discussed the war in early 2022 invested significantly less than otherwise similar firms. The results hold across multiple empirical strategies and highlight the role of geopolitical risk in shaping firm behavior during global crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello & Mike McHenry & Immo Schott, 2026. "The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment," International Finance Discussion Papers 1432, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:102900
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2026.1432
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    1. Frankel, R & Johnson, M & Skinner, DJ, 1999. "An empirical examination of conference calls as a voluntary disclosure medium," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 133-150.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
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    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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