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Argentina’s unimpressive recovery: insights from a real business cycle approach


  • Carlos E. Zarazaga


Argentina’s GDP increased 30% between 2002 and 2005, prompting optimistic assessments that the country had finally left behind its secular stagnation. However, this strong performance followed a sharp decline in economic activity and therefore could be the manifestation of a bounce-back effect with no lasting impact on Argentina’s mediocre long-run growth rates. The paper examines this conjecture with the quantitative discipline imposed by a Real Business-Cycle methodology and concludes that the 2002-05 expansion was not only a rebound, but also considerably weaker than the model predicts, a finding not consistent with upbeat views about the country’s long-run prospects.

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  • Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2006. "Argentina’s unimpressive recovery: insights from a real business cycle approach," Working Papers 0606, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0606

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    3. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    4. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga, 2004. "Argentina's capital gap puzzle," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0504, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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