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CRE Development Potential and the Selection of Opportunity Zones

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Abstract

Place-based policies are often caught between two potentially conflicting aims: (i) directing aid to needy communities and (ii) spurring investment. We study this tradeoff in the context of the Opportunity Zones (OZ) program. Leveraging unique phase-level microdata on commercial construction projects, we show that US state governors prioritized designating tracts where construction projects were already being planned. About two-thirds of the greater construction growth in OZs can be attributed to this selection. States prioritizing tracts with greater investment opportunities observed larger construction increases in designated tracts. We calibrate a structural model to quantify the effects of the program and examine counterfactuals under alternative preferences or eligibility criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein, 2026. "CRE Development Potential and the Selection of Opportunity Zones," Working Papers 26-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:103569
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202617
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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