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The Dynamic Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Policies: Were There Any Changes in the 1990s?


  • IIDA Yasuyuki
  • MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi


This study investigates changes in the contemporary Japanese economics and the effects of macroeconomic policies in the 1990s. We estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models employing data detrended by different methods. This paper presents three major findings: First, there is a gradual decline in the influences of fiscal policy. Second, there is no decline in the impact of changes in the interest rate. Third, there has been a collapse in the linkage of monetary aggregates and real economy. These findings force us to reconsider the planning and designing of macroeconomic policies. Additionally, in each estimation we find strong tendency of so-called "price puzzle," which require us more investigation to theoretical model we rely.

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  • IIDA Yasuyuki & MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi, 2009. "The Dynamic Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Policies: Were There Any Changes in the 1990s?," ESRI Discussion paper series 209, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:209

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    1. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "Fallacy of the Multiplier Effect: Correcting the Income Analysis," ISER Discussion Paper 0673, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2001. "The morning after: explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 241-259, April.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    5. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    8. repec:taf:rjapxx:v:13:y:2008:i:4:p:451-480 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Miyao, Ryuzo, 2002. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 376-392, May.
    10. Satoshi Urasawa, 2008. "Business cycle fluctuations in Japanese macroeconomic time series: 1980–2000," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 451-480.
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