IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ese/emodwp/em7-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The short-term distributional impact of COVID-19 in Malawi

Author

Listed:
  • Magalasi, Chimwemwe

Abstract

This study analyses the short-term distributional effects of COVID-19 on household incomes in Malawi. Growth is expected to fall due to the pandemic. The Malawi annual gross domestic product growth rate for 2020 has been revised downwards from 5.5% to 1.9%. According to the government of Malawi, unemployment in Malawi is expected to increase in 2020 compared to 2019 as companies begin to lay-off employees due to both demand and supply shocks. Our study investigates the impact of changes in employment due to the COVID-19 crisis on inequality and poverty using the recently developed tax-benefit microsimulation model for Malawi, MAMOD. In assessing the impact of the job losses, three employment shock scenarios are considered. Our study leverages on the novel High Frequency Phone Survey for COVID-19 that was implemented from June 2020 and the recently released Integrated Household Survey which was collected just before the COVID-19 crisis. We find that the poverty measured by headcount and poverty gap increases because of the COVID-19 outbreak. The pandemic has also worsened inequality as the Gini Coefficient rose. We further find that the corrective measures implemented the Emergency Cash Transfer, were able to subdue the impact of the crisis especially at the bottom of the income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Magalasi, Chimwemwe, 2021. "The short-term distributional impact of COVID-19 in Malawi," EUROMOD Working Papers EM7/21, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em7-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/euromod/em7-21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan, 2010. "Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Xavier Jara & Lourdes Montesdeoca & Iva V. Tasseva, 2021. "The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax-benefit policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-4, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2020. "Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 321-336, June.
    4. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    5. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2014. "Evaluating Binary Alignment Methods in Microsimulation Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15.
    7. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D. Younger, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality, Poverty and Mobility in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Working Papers 558, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    8. Alari Paulus & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2020. "Europe Through the Crisis: Discretionary Policy Changes and Automatic Stabilizers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, August.
    9. Baulch, Bob & Botha, Rosemary & Pauw, Karl, 2020. "The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis," MaSSP working papers 37, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Gemma Wright & Michael Noble & Helen Barnes & Ali Moechtar & David McLennan & Arief Anshory Yusuf & Katrin Gasior & Ratnawati Muyanto, 2021. "Estimating the Distributional Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Remedial Tax and Benefit Policies in Indonesia," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 14(2), pages 50-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Abela, 2022. "Assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 wage supplement scheme: A microsimulation study," CBM Working Papers WP/06/2022, Central Bank of Malta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    2. H. Xavier Jara & Lourdes Montesdeoca & Iva Tasseva, 2022. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers and Emergency Tax–Benefit Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Ecuador," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 2787-2809, December.
    3. Nerijus Černiauskas & Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Linas Tarasonis, 2022. "Income Inequality and Redistribution in Lithuania: The Role of Policy, Labor Market, Income, and Demographics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 131-166, April.
    4. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2023. "Preference for redistribution during structural change with labor mobility frictions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Mike Brewer & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2021. "Did the UK policy response to Covid-19 protect household incomes?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 433-458, September.
    6. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Christian Wittneben, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation and Automatic Stabilization: New Results," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 420-450, September.
    7. Doorley, Karina & Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2018. "Inequality in EU crisis countries. How effective were automatic stabilisers?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/18, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Eric Sommer, 2019. "Demographic change and the European income distribution," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 337-357, September.
    9. Karina Doorley & Jan Gromadzki & Piotr Lewandowski & Dora Tuda & Philippe Van Kerm, 2023. "Automation and income inequality in Europe," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-11, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    10. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M. Sologon, 2022. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-31, July.
    11. Alari Paulus & Caroline Klein, 2019. "Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1570, OECD Publishing.
    12. Luis Huesca & Linda Llamas & H. Xavier Jara & César O. Vargas Téllez & David Rodríguez, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and inequality in Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, Julio - S.
    13. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    14. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan & Karina Doorley & Claire Keane, 2017. "Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax‐Benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International Perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 559-585, December.
    15. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    16. Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Tine Hufkens & Andreas Peichl & Mattia Ricci, 2023. "The role of short-time work and discretionary policy measures in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1107-1136, August.
    17. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sologon, Denisa Maria, 2023. "The Transformation of Public Policy Analysis in Times of Crisis – A Microsimulation-Nowcasting Method Using Big Data," IZA Discussion Papers 15937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    20. Ekaterina Tosheva & Iva Tasseva & Dragomir Draganov & Venelin Boshnakov, 2016. "Effects of changes in tax-transfer system on households income distribution in Bulgaria: simulation analysis using EUROMOD for 2011-2015," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 51-71,72-91.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em7-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jonathan Nears (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcessuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.