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Targeting Debt in Lebanon: A Structural Macro-Econometric Model


  • Salim Araji

    () (University of Jordan)

  • Vladimir Hlasny
  • Vito Intini


This paper lays out and estimates a structural macro-econometric model of the Lebanese economy to simulate the implications of accumulated debt changes on GDP and other economic indicators, and to project the growth–fiscal nexus for the six years following the last year for which national statistics are available, 2015–2020. To these ends, historical and up-to-date national accounts data for years 1992–2014 are painstakingly collected from individual government agencies, and economic framework with five macroeconomic blocks is constructed, namely: macroeconomic, government, price, monetary and financial sector, and external accounts blocks. In total 16 behavioral equations are estimated with the help of an additional 10 identity equations defining theoretical dependency among variables in order to impute missing variables and to bound model forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Salim Araji & Vladimir Hlasny & Vito Intini, 2017. "Targeting Debt in Lebanon: A Structural Macro-Econometric Model," Working Papers 1132, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1132

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    3. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13092.
    6. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2008. "Capital Inflows, Dutch Disease Effects, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 971-989, November.
    7. Elbadawi,Ibrahim & Selim,Hoda, 2016. "Understanding and Avoiding the Oil Curse in Resource-rich Arab Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107141728, October.
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