Irving Fisher and the UIP Puzzle: Meeting the Expectations a Century Later
We review Irving Fisher’s seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation. Like Fisher, we find that the failures of UIP are connected to individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange rate expectations are persistent, but eventually transitory. We find considerable commonality in deviations from UIP and PPP, suggesting that both of these deviations are driven by a common factor. Using a dynamic latent factor model, we find that deviations from UIP are almost entirely due to expectational errors in exchange rates, rather than attributable to the risk premium; a result consistent with those reported by Fisher a century ago.
|Date of creation:||07 Dec 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 31-10-408 1182
Fax: 31-10-408 9020
Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1991.
"Premia in forward foreign exchange as unobserved components,"
1991-12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1993. "Premia in forward foreign exchange as unobserved components," Other publications TiSEM 23782b7b-2146-4381-8cf9-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1991. "Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange as Unobserved Components," Papers 9112, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
- Wolff, Christian C P, 1987.
" Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
- Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert W. Dimand & John Geanakoplos, 2005. "Celebrating Irving Fisher," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 3-18, 01.
- Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
- Robert W. Dimand, 1999. "Irving Fisher and the Fisher Relation: Setting the Record Straight," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 744-750, May.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993.
"Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?,"
93-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 709-42.
- Lewis, K. & Evans, M.D.D., 1993. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-12, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521405737 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RePub)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.