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Striking Oil: Another Puzzle

  • Driesprong, G.
  • Jacobsen, B.
  • Maat, B.
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    We find that changes in oil prices strongly predict future stock market returns in many countries in the world. In our thirty year sample of monthly data for developed stock markets, we find statistically significant predictability in 12 out of the 18 countries and in a world market index. For our shorter time series of emerging markets we obtain similar results. We show that these results are economically significant and robust with respect to the sample period, different kind of oil prices we consider and well known effects like the January effect and the Halloween effect.

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    File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/1017/ERS%20082%20Jacobsen.pdf
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    Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam in its series ERIM Report Series Research in Management with number ERS-2003-082-F&A.

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    Date of creation: 07 Nov 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:1017
    Contact details of provider: Postal: RSM Erasmus University & Erasmus School of Economics, PoBox 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam
    Phone: 31-10-408 1182
    Fax: 31-10-408 9020
    Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/
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    1. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    2. Henriksson, Roy D, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 73-96, January.
    3. Glosten, L. R. & Jagannathan, R., 1994. "A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-160, January.
    4. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans A., 2005. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 583-613, December.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
    6. repec:dgr:uvatin:2001113 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
    8. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    9. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
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