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Testing changes in consumer confidence indicators

Author

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • van Oest, R.D.

Abstract

The authors propose a statistical methodology to test changes in consumer confidence indicators. These indicators are surveyed monthly and each time concern di®erent individuals. This complicates a straightforward interpretation of changes in the values of the index. The proposed methodology involves estimating the transition matrix which connects the fractions of positive, neutral and negative opinions. The elements of this matrix can be estimated and confidence bounds can be computed. A by-product of the method is a simple tool to correct for seasonality. An illustration to about two decades of Dutch data shows that monthly changes in consumer confidence are not often significantly different from zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Oest, R.D., 2006. "Testing changes in consumer confidence indicators," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:7675
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heij, Christiaan & de Boer, Paul & Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & van Dijk, Herman K., 2004. "Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199268016.
    2. Rutger Oest, 2005. "Which Brands Gain Share from Which Brands? Inference from Store-Level Scanner Data," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 281-304, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maurizio Bovi, 2008. "The “Psycho-analysis” of Common People’s Forecast Errors. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys," ISAE Working Papers 95 Classification-JEL C42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov process; consumer confidence;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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