IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/eureir/1589.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Arbitrage and sampling uncertainty in financial stochastic programming models

Author

Listed:
  • Berkelaar, A.B.
  • Hoek, H.
  • Lucas, A.

Abstract

Asset liability management (ALM) is an important and challenging problem for institutional investors and financial intermediaries. The requirement to fulfill its liablilities constrains the institutional investor in its asset allocation possiblilites. We formulate an ALM model for pension funds as a multistage stochastic programming model. Relevant variables such as future inflation rates, stock retruns, and bond yields are unknown. This is incorporated in the ALM model by means of an event tree, which represents the expected development of the economic variables as well as the corresponding uncertainty. The event tree is constructed by sampling from a time series model for the variables, and is therefore subject to sampling uncertainty. Moreover, for the event tree to be realistic, it is required not to exhibit arbitrage opportunies. In ths paper we examine the effect of sampling uncertainty and the structure of the event tree on the optimal policies. Furthermore, we consider the effect of random sampling and the tree structure on the probability of arbitragefree trees. We also compare the optimal solutions to the ALM problem for trees with an without arbitrage. For these purposes, we consider data from a Dutch pension fund.

Suggested Citation

  • Berkelaar, A.B. & Hoek, H. & Lucas, A., 1999. "Arbitrage and sampling uncertainty in financial stochastic programming models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9919-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1589
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/1589/1589_ps.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. David R. Cariño & Terry Kent & David H. Myers & Celine Stacy & Mike Sylvanus & Andrew L. Turner & Kouji Watanabe & William T. Ziemba, 1994. "The Russell-Yasuda Kasai Model: An Asset/Liability Model for a Japanese Insurance Company Using Multistage Stochastic Programming," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 29-49, February.
    4. Martin R. Holmer, 1994. "The Asset-Liability Management Strategy System at Fannie Mae," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 3-21, June.
    5. Pieter Klaassen, 1998. "Financial Asset-Pricing Theory and Stochastic Programming Models for Asset/Liability Management: A Synthesis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 31-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 stock markets: A VAR quantile analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-46.
    2. Hong‐Chih Huang, 2010. "Optimal Multiperiod Asset Allocation: Matching Assets to Liabilities in a Discrete Model," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 451-472, June.
    3. Siriopoulos, Costas & Fassas, Athanasios, 2012. "An investor sentiment barometer — Greek Implied Volatility Index (GRIV)," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 77-93.
    4. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    5. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Mondher Bellalah & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "The comovements in international stock markets: new evidence from Latin American emerging countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1323-1328.
    6. Fang, Yong & Chen, Lihua & Fukushima, Masao, 2008. "A mixed R&D projects and securities portfolio selection model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 700-715, March.
    7. Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 30-44, October.
    8. Boender, Guus C. E., 1997. "A hybrid simulation/optimisation scenario model for asset/liability management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 126-135, May.
    9. Brunnermeier, M.K. & Sannikov, Y., 2016. "Macro, Money, and Finance," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1497-1545, Elsevier.
    10. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    11. Najafi, Amir Abbas & Mushakhian, Siamak, 2015. "Multi-stage stochastic mean–semivariance–CVaR portfolio optimization under transaction costs," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 256(C), pages 445-458.
    12. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.
    13. Dormidontova, Yulia & Nazarov, Vladimir & A. Tikhonova, 2014. "Analysis of Approaches of Participants of Pension Products Market to the Development of Optimal Investment Strategies of Pension Savings," Published Papers r90227, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Lucas, André, 1997. "Strategic and tactical asset allocation and the effect of long-run equilibrium relations," Serie Research Memoranda 0042, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    15. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    16. Li, S. X., 1995. "An insurance and investment portfolio model using chance constrained programming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 577-585, October.
    17. Youssouf A. F. Toukourou & Franc{c}ois Dufresne, 2015. "ON Integrated Chance Constraints in ALM for Pension Funds," Papers 1503.05343, arXiv.org.
    18. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond & Gregoriou, Greg N., 2021. "The response of hedge fund higher moment risk to macroeconomic and illiquidity shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 289-318.
    19. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yau, Hwey-Yun, 2004. "Time series analysis for the interest rates relationships among China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan money markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 171-188, February.
    20. Schüder, Stefan, 2011. "Monetary policy trade-offs in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," MPRA Paper 32019, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeurnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.