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A risk model with renewal shot-noise Cox process

Author

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  • Dassios, Angelos
  • Jang, Jiwook
  • Zhao, Hongbiao

Abstract

In this paper we generalise the risk models beyond the ordinary framework of affine processes or Markov processes and study a risk process where the claim arrivals are driven by a Cox process with renewal shot-noise intensity. The upper bounds of the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probabilities are investigated and an efficient and exact Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for this new process is developed. A more efficient estimation method for the infinite-horizon ruin probability based on importance sampling via a suitable change of probability measure is also provided; illustrative numerical examples are also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2015. "A risk model with renewal shot-noise Cox process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:64051
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jang, Ji-Wook & Krvavych, Yuriy, 2004. "Arbitrage-free premium calculation for extreme losses using the shot noise process and the Esscher transform," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 97-111, August.
    2. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2012. "Ruin by dynamic contagion claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 93-106.
    3. Zhu, Lingjiong, 2013. "Ruin probabilities for risk processes with non-stationary arrivals and subexponential claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 544-550.
    4. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
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    6. Peter W. Glynn & Donald L. Iglehart, 1989. "Importance Sampling for Stochastic Simulations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(11), pages 1367-1392, November.
    7. Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook, 2003. "Pricing of catastrophe reinsurance and derivatives using the Cox process with shot noise intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2849, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Thorsten Schmidt, 2014. "Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Macci, Claudio & Torrisi, Giovanni Luca, 2011. "Risk processes with shot noise Cox claim number process and reserve dependent premium rate," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 134-145, January.
    10. Asmussen, S. & Binswanger, K., 1997. "Simulation of Ruin Probabilities for Subexponential Claims," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 297-318, November.
    11. Torrisi, G. L., 2004. "Simulating the ruin probability of risk processes with delay in claim settlement," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 225-244, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yiqing Chen, 2019. "A Renewal Shot Noise Process with Subexponential Shot Marks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8, June.
    2. Teng, Ye & Zhang, Zhimin, 2023. "Finite-time expected present value of operating costs until ruin in a Cox risk model with periodic observation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 452(C).
    3. Yan, Jun, 2017. "Deviations and asymptotic behavior of convex and coherent entropic risk measures for compound Poisson process influenced by jump times," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 71-79.
    4. Liu, Yang & Zhang, Xingfang & Ma, Weimin, 2017. "A new uncertain insurance model with variational lower limit," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 164-169.
    5. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Ignatov, Zvetan G. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Tan, Senren, 2020. "On double-boundary non-crossing probability for a class of compound processes with applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 602-613.
    6. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2017. "Efficient simulation of clustering jumps with CIR intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 74205, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Jang, Jiwook & Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2018. "Moments of renewal shot-noise processes and their applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87428, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Angelos Dassios & Hongbiao Zhao, 2017. "Efficient Simulation of Clustering Jumps with CIR Intensity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1494-1515, December.
    9. Jang, Jiwook & Qu, Yan & Zhao, Hongbiao & Dassios, Angelos, 2023. "A Cox model for gradually disappearing events," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112754, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Liu, Wenyue & Cadenillas, Abel, 2023. "Optimal insurance contracts for a shot-noise Cox claim process and persistent insured's actions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 69-93.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk model; Ruin probability; Renewal shot-noise Cox process; Piecewise-deterministic Markov process; Martingale method; Monte Carlo simulation; Importance sampling; Change of probability measure; Rare-event simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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