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Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Renée Fry-McKibbin
  • Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo
  • Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao
  • Lin Qi

Abstract

We study the distribution of equity returns in the G20 equity markets to test for contagion following the first official report of a COVID19 case in China in December 2019 and the subsequent announcement of a global pandemic in March 2020. We find evidence of contagion of Chinese equity market tail risk in early 2020 followed by widespread evidence of contagion across multiple channels from the U.S. to G20 equity markets after the pandemic announcement. Our results suggest that global equity markets may be exposed to unpriced pandemic risk factors with implications for portfolio diversification, risk management and financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Renée Fry-McKibbin & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Lin Qi, 2021. "Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2021-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-36
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    1. Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao & Wang, Mei-Chih, 2024. "Revisit the impact of exchange rate on stock market returns during the pandemic period," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Balash, V. & Faizliev, A., 2025. "Volatility spillovers in the Russian stock market: Responses to exogenous shocks," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 65-84.
    3. Zhu, Qinwen & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2023. "Volatility forecast with the regularity modifications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    4. Kumar, Sanjeev & Jain, Reetika & Narain, & Balli, Faruk & Billah, Mabruk, 2023. "Interconnectivity and investment strategies among commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and G-20 capital markets: A comparative analysis during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 547-593.
    5. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2024. "Financial contagion and networks among the oil and BRICS stock markets during seven episodes of crisis events," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar & Sampath, Aravind, 2022. "Portfolio risk and stress across the business cycle," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Ahmed, Shamima & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Le, Van & Nath, Tamal & Rahman, Molla Ramizur, 2024. "Interconnectedness in the FOREX market during the high inflation regime: A network analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Han, Ki C & Lee, Sukhun & Suk, David Y & Sung, Hyun Mo, 2025. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on diversification: Evidence from microfinance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Marina Yu. Malkina, 2024. "Financial contagion in the US, European and Chinese stock markets during global shocks," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 47-67, December.
    10. Aboagye, Ernest & Ko, Stanley Iat-Meng & Lo, Chia Chun & Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Peng, Liang, 2024. "A contagion test with unspecified heteroscedastic errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    11. Marina Yu. Malkina, 2024. "Financial Contagion of the Commodity Markets from the Stock Market during Pandemic and New Sanctions Shocks," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 452-475.
    12. Huang, Jionghao & Li, Hongqiao & Chen, Baifan & Liu, Mengai & An, Chaofan & Xia, Xiaohua, 2025. "Revisiting the currency-commodity nexus: New insights into the R2 decomposed connectedness and the role of global shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Mirza, Nawazish & Abbas Rizvi, Syed Kumail & Saba, Irum & Naqvi, Bushra & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The resilience of Islamic equity funds during COVID-19: Evidence from risk adjusted performance, investment styles and volatility timing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-295.
    14. Xing, Xiaoyun & Xu, Zihan & Chen, Ying & Ouyang, WenPei & Deng, Jing & Pan, Huanxue, 2023. "The impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the energy subsector stocks in China: A network-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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