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A monetary policy perspective on the euro area fiscal reaction function

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  • Wolswijk, Guido

Abstract

This paper examines how fiscal policy in the euro area reacts to monetary policy, by estimating fiscal policy reaction functions for the period 1999-2019. Inclusion of the monetary policy stance in the fiscal reaction function, approximated by a shadow interest rate, is a relatively novel aspect in this type of analysis. The findings suggest that fiscal policy acts in a substitutive manner, its stance moving in the opposite direction of monetary policy, though this effect may have ceased operating during ECB’s quantitative easing. Using local projections, the substitutive effect is found to increase over time before turning broadly neutral. Analysing the fiscal response to other monetary policy relevant variables - government debt and the output gap -, outcomes suggests that budget balances react positively to government debt, supporting fiscal sustainability, and that fiscal policy acts countercyclically in recessions. JEL Classification: E61, H11, H62

Suggested Citation

  • Wolswijk, Guido, 2026. "A monetary policy perspective on the euro area fiscal reaction function," Working Paper Series 3172, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263172
    Note: 339143
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Afonso, António & Sousa, Alexandre, 2024. "Monetary and fiscal interplay: Does it work both ways?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    2. Afonso, António & Gomes-Pereira, Francisco, 2025. "Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. António Afonso & José Alves & Oļegs Matvejevs & Oļegs Tkačevs, 2024. "Impact of Sovereign Debt Maturity on Fiscal Sustainability," CESifo Working Paper Series 11499, CESifo.
    4. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Klara Stovicek, 2019. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers in the EU: Size and Effectiveness," European Economy - Economic Briefs 045, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    6. Karsten Staehr & Oļegs Tkačevs & Katri Urke, 2024. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(4), pages 1477-1504, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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