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Fiscal rules, fiscal space and procyclical fiscal policy

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  • Nerlich, Carolin
  • Reuter, Wolf Heinrich

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the interaction of fiscal rules and fiscal space. We find strong evidence for fiscal rules being associated with higher fiscal space. Furthermore, the analysis shows that countries with more fiscal space tend to have higher discretionary expenditures, but that this effect is significantly reduced if fiscal rules are in place. A similar effect can be observed for the procyclicality of fiscal policy, which is significantly higher in an environment of ample fiscal space, while this difference is reduced with fiscal rules. Regarding the different types of fiscal rules, we find the strongest results for expenditure rules and to a lesser extent for balanced budget rules, but none for debt rules. JEL Classification: E61, E62, H60

Suggested Citation

  • Nerlich, Carolin & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "Fiscal rules, fiscal space and procyclical fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1872, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151872
    Note: 508107
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    Cited by:

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    2. Grzegorz Poniatowski, 2019. "Enhancing Prudent Fiscal Policy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 199-215, December.
    3. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    4. Gnangnon Sena Kimm, 2018. "Export Product Concentration and De Facto Fiscal Space: Does Openness to International Trade matter?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, March.
    5. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Fiscal Space for Trade: How Could the International Trade Community Help?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-42, February.
    6. Aurel IANCU & Dan Constantin OLTEANU, 2022. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policies in Non-Euro EU Member Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 188-205, October.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Hoi Wai Jackie Cheng & Ingo Pitterle, 2018. "Towards a more comprehensive assessment of fiscal space," Working Papers 153, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    9. Joan Maria Mussons Olivella, 2020. "Fiscal Responsiveness to Public Debt: An Analysis of Regional Debt Limit Uncertainty in Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 55-83, June.
    10. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    11. Sangita Misra & Rajiv Ranjan, 2018. "Fiscal rules and procyclicality: an empirical analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 207-228, December.
    12. J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash, 2019. "Expenditure visibility and voter memory: a compositional approach to the political budget cycle in Indian states, 1959–2012," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 129-157, June.
    13. Robertson, D. & Tambakis, D., 2016. "Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1674, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Magdalena Kąkol, 2017. "Designing a fiscal union for the euro area," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16(4), pages 413-432, December.
    15. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    16. Mihaela Onofrei & Florin-Alexandru Macsim & Florin Oprea, 2017. "Determinants Of Fiscal Rules Implementation €“ An Eu Case Study," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 463-472, July.
    17. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2019. "When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 125-141.
    18. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim & Park, Donghyun, 2019. "Fiscal space and government-spending and tax-rate cyclicality patterns: A cross-country comparison, 1960–2016," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 229-252.
    21. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Do fiscal rules need budget transparency to be effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    22. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Sven Langedijk & Martijn Hoogeland, 2021. "Does Media Visibility Make EU Fiscal Rules More Effective?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 155, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    23. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Valencia, Oscar & Hirs, Jorge & Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12639, Inter-American Development Bank.
    24. Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2016. "Design of fiscal frameworks and compliance with fiscal rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 29-40.
    25. Altug Murat Köktaº & Tugay Günel, 2022. "Impact of Fiscal Rules on Government Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Emerging European Countries: Threshold Effect of Budget Deficit," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(3), pages 264-283, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    discretionary fiscal policy; fiscal rules; fiscal space; procyclicality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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