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The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in boom and bust episodes

Author

Listed:
  • Schuknecht, Ludger
  • Martin, Reiner
  • Vansteenkiste, Isabel

Abstract

Numerous countries have experienced boom-bust episodes in asset prices in the past 20 years. This study looks at stylised facts and conducts statistical and econometric analysis for such episodes, distinguishing between industrialised countries that experienced external adjustment (via real effective exchange rate depreciation during busts) and those that relied on an internal adjustment process (and experienced no depreciation). The study finds that different adjustment experiences are correlated with the degree of macroeconomic imbalances and balance sheet problems. Internal adjustment seems more prevalent when financial vulnerabilities, excess demand and competitiveness loss remain relatively contained in the boom. In the bust, internal adjusters experience more protracted but less deep downturns than external adjusters as imbalances unwind more slowly. Some Central and East European EU Member States are currently experiencing strong credit and asset price growth in conjunction with rapid economic expansion. Against this background the experience of other countries may raise awareness of related policy challenges. JEL Classification: E32, E63, E65

Suggested Citation

  • Schuknecht, Ludger & Martin, Reiner & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in boom and bust episodes," Working Paper Series 813, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007813
    Note: 175489
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp813.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Felix Eschenbach & Ludger Schuknecht, 2004. "Budgetary risks from real estate and stock markets [‘Kapitalvinster, hushållens konsumtion och sparande’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 314-346.
    2. Jun Xu & J. Scott Long, 2005. "Confidence intervals for predicted outcomes in regression models for categorical outcomes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 537-559, December.
    3. Backé, Peter & Thimann, Christian & Arratibel, Olga & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Mehl, Arnaud & Nerlich, Carolin, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro: an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    4. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2017. "Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 119-131, March.
    2. Adalbert Winkler, 2014. "Finance, growth and crisis: a European perspective," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 12, pages 199-216, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    4. Tripathi, Sabyasachi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Housing Prices: A Cross Country Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 98089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    8. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Booms and busts; competitiveness.; exchange rates; external and internal adjustment; financial imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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