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Managing Policymakers’ Biases in Dealing with Uncertain Hospital Capacity Needs

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  • Omar Chisari
  • Antonio Estache

Abstract

We rely on a simple choice model of hospital-capacity decisions to highlight the relevance of policymakers’ behavioural biases in the management of health care demand uncertainty. We show that matching ex-ante the design of the fiscal approach to financing hospitals with the policymakers’ behavioural biases could reduce care-rationing risks. However, the effectiveness of the financing choice also depends on the levels of operational and social costs the policymakers decide to work with in their assessments of needs. The model can also be used ex-post to reveal undeclared behavioural biases and use this information to improve future financing policy designs.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Chisari & Antonio Estache, 2025. "Managing Policymakers’ Biases in Dealing with Uncertain Hospital Capacity Needs," Working Papers ECARES 2025-08, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/391422
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F Gorunescu & S I McClean & P H Millard, 2002. "A queueing model for bed-occupancy management and planning of hospitals," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(1), pages 19-24, January.
    2. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Government Effectiveness and the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Berger, Elke & Winkelmann, Juliane & Eckhardt, Helene & Nimptsch, Ulrike & Panteli, Dimitra & Reichebner, Christoph & Rombey, Tanja & Busse, Reinhard, 2022. "A country-level analysis comparing hospital capacity and utilisation during the first COVID-19 wave across Europe," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(5), pages 373-381.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; behavioural biases; hospital capacity; health care financing; social cost valuation;
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