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Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Milagros Onofri

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)

  • Inés Berniell

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)

  • Raquel Fernández

    (NYU & NBER & CEPR)

  • Azul Menduiña

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)

Abstract

This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Milagros Onofri & Inés Berniell & Raquel Fernández & Azul Menduiña, 2026. "Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0368, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    • Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0368
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ann Garbett & Sarah Neal & Angela Luna Hernandez & Nikos Tzavidis, 2025. "Reframing the Relationship Between Fertility and Education in Adolescence: 60 Years of Evidence From Latin America," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 51(2), pages 656-701, June.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Claudia Goldin, 2025. "Babies and the macroeconomy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(367), pages 675-700, July.
    4. Claudia Goldin, 2014. "A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1091-1119, April.
    5. Melissa Schettini Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2025. "Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?," NBER Working Papers 33989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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