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Analyzing E-Learning Adoption via Recursive Partitioning

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  • Philipp Köllinger
  • Christian Schade

Abstract

The paper analyzes factors that influence the adoption of e-learning and gives an example of how to forecast technology adoption based on a post-hoc predictive segmentation using a classification and regression tree (CART). We find strong evidence for the existence of technological interdependencies and organizational learning effects. Furthermore, we find different paths to elearning adoption. The results of the analysis suggest a growing "digital divide" among firms. We use cross-sectional data from a European survey about e-business in June 2002, covering almost 6,000 enterprises in 15 industry sectors and 4 countries. Comparing the predictive quality of CART, we find that CART outperforms a traditional logistic regression. The results are more parsimonious, i. e. CARTs use less explanatory variables, better interpretable since different paths of adoption are detected, and from a statistical standpoint, because interactions between the covariates are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Köllinger & Christian Schade, 2003. "Analyzing E-Learning Adoption via Recursive Partitioning," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 346, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jennifer F. Reinganum, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405.
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    5. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    6. Colombo, Massimo G & Mosconi, Rocco, 1995. "Complementarity and Cumulative Learning Effects in the Early Diffusion of Multiple Technologies," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 13-48, March.
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    13. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology Adoption; Path Dependence; Interaction between Different Technologies; Regression Trees; Predictive Segmentation; Logistic Regression; E-Learning; E-Business;

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • L29 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Other

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