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Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective

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  • Mathias Lerch

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Although the role of urbanization in fertility decline remains debated, few studies have assessed long-term fertility trends by urban/rural place of residence. Relying on successive surveys for 55 countries, we analyze the diffusion of cohort fertility decline in urban and rural areas across Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. We show that, once the fertility transition is initiated, the decline in urban areas is similarly fast in all three continents. The pattern of the urban-to-rural diffusion of birth limitation, however, has differed significantly. In Latin American and Caribbean countries, the evolution in the rural-urban fertility differentials followed an inverted U-shaped pattern over the fertility transition. In Asia, the differences remained more limited, because of a parallel decline in fertility by type of place of residence, whereas in Africa they increased monotonically because rural areas have not yet experienced significant fertility declines. The implications of these results for urban population projections and for our understanding of the international variations in the pace of fertility transition are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Lerch, 2017. "Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-011
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Remi Jedwab & Luc Christiaensen & Marina Gindelsky, 2014. "Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push? New Historical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 2014-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    2. Tom Moultrie & Takudzwa Sayi & Ian Timæus, 2012. "Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(3), pages 241-258.
    3. Garenne, Michel & Joseph, Veronique, 2002. "The Timing of the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1835-1843, October.
    4. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127, March.
    5. Philippe Bocquier, 2005. "World Urbanization Prospects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(9), pages 197-236.
    6. Patrick R. Galloway & Ronald D. Lee & Eugene a. Hammel, 1998. "Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 209-264, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rotimi Felix Afolabi & Martin Enock Palamuleni, 2022. "Influence of Maternal Education on Second Childbirth Interval Among Women in South Africa: Rural-Urban Differential Using Survival Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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