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La consommation de ressources environnementales en incertitude

  • Alain AYONG LE KAMA

    (Université de Grenoble 2, Commissariat général du Plan et EUREQua, Université de Paris 1)

Cet article présente un modèle dans lequel un individu représentatif consomme une unique ressource environnementale, que l'on suppose renouvelable. Nous supposons, par ailleurs, qu'il existe un ensemble de phénomènes naturels aléatoires susceptibles d'affecter le stock de ressource disponible pour la consommation. Nous analysons à l'aide de ce modèle les comportements de consommation face à une incertitude sur la disponibilité d'une ressource environnementale dans le futur. Notre objectif étant de dépasser les résultats, somme toute triviaux, qui font l'essentiel de la littérature sur la décision en incertitude, et qui consistent à remarquer qu'en présence d'incertitude, l'agent adopte généralement un comportement plus prudent quant à son usage de l'environnement que dans le cas où l'incertitude n'existerait pas. Nous montrons d'une part comment la prise en compte successive des contraintes physiques, de disponibilité de la ressource et de solvabilité (ou de survie), auxquelles font face les consommateurs, modifie fondamentalement leur comportement, relativement à l'hypothèse de cycle de vie. Et, d'autre part pourquoi leur omission, ce qui est généralement le cas dans la littérature, peut amener à des conclusions erronées.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2004031.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2004031
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  1. Alain Ayong Le Kama, 2012. "Preservation and Endogenous Uncertain Future Preferences," Working Papers 1204, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  2. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
  3. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Plourde, Charles & Yeung, David, 1989. "A model of industrial pollution in a stochastic environment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 97-105, March.
  5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Renewable Resource Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 289-303, April.
  6. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Beltratti, Andrea & Heal, Geoffrey, 1998. "Uncertain future preferences and conservation," MPRA Paper 7912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ayong Le Kama, Alain D., 2001. "Sustainable growth, renewable resources and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1911-1918, December.
  8. d'Autume, Antoine & Michel, Philippe, 1993. "Endogenous growth in Arrow's Learning by Doing model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1175-1184, August.
  9. Heal, G., 1998. "Valuing the Future: Economic Theory and Sustainability," Papers 98-10, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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