IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/9922.html

Syncronicity between macroeconomic time series: an exploratory analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Aparicio, Felipe M.
  • Escribano, Álvaro
  • García, Ana

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the performances of a model free cointegration testing device that we construct from functions of order statistics. First, we propose new exploratory techniques that consist in comparing the plots of the range and the jump sequences of the original series. These plots suggest alternative cointegration testing schemes. Here we focused on one of them, which involves two complementary test statistics. We report on some promising results obtained from Monte Carlo experiments as well as on some empirical applications of the new method to pairs of exchange-rates, and to gold and silver prices. Our study concludes that the proposed methodology is potentially robust to monotonic nonlinearities and serial correlation structure in the cointegration errors, and certain types of level shifts in the cointegrating relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro & García, Ana, 2000. "Syncronicity between macroeconomic time series: an exploratory analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 9922, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:9922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/5080a485-9606-4137-b749-16ba506ec182/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 1998. "Cointegration testing using the ranges," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10941, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 269-298, June.
    3. Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2002. "Nonlinear error correction models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 509-522, September.
    4. Breitung, Jorg & Gourieroux, Christian, 1997. "Rank tests for unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-27, November.
    5. Granger, Clive W J & Hallman, Jeffrey J, 1991. "Long Memory Series with Attractors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(1), pages 11-26, February.
    6. Miguel A. Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2000. "Cointegration Testing Under Structural Breaks: A Robust Extended Error Correction Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 23-52, February.
    7. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro & García, Ana, 2003. "Range unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws031126, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 2003. "Cointegration tests based on record counting statistics," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws036615, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 1997. "Searching for linear and nonlinear cointegration: a new approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6219, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Breitung, Jorg, 2001. "Rank Tests for Nonlinear Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 331-340, July.
    3. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 1998. "A characterization of cointegrating relationships using induced-order statistics," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10942, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 2003. "Cointegration tests based on record counting statistics," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws036615, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Arai, Yoichi, 2016. "Testing For Linearity In Regressions With I(1) Processes," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 111-138, June.
    6. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Joseph Onochie, 1997. "A nonparametric investigation of the 90‐day t‐bill rate," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198.
    7. Hwan Seo, Myung, 2011. "Estimation Of Nonlinear Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-234, April.
    8. Li, Dao & He, Changli, 2012. "Testing for Linear Cointegration Against Smooth-Transition Cointegration," Working Papers 2012:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    9. Escribano, Álvaro & Rodríguez, Juan Andrés & Arranz Cuesta, Miguel Angel, 2025. "40 Years of Empirical Evidence of Cointegration and Nonlinear Equilibrium Correction in UK Money Demand since the XIX Century," UC3M Working papers. Economics 47122, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Cai, Zongwu, 2003. "Trending Time-Varying Coefficient Models With Serially Correlated Errors," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    11. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
    12. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
    13. Marc Hallin & Ramon van den Akker & Bas Werker, 2009. "A class of Simple Semiparametrically Efficient Rank-Based Unit Root Tests," Working Papers ECARES 2009_001, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Chang, Yoosoon, 2003. "Nonlinear IV Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 2003-06, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    15. Kasparis, Ioannis & Andreou, Elena & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2015. "Nonparametric predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 468-494.
    16. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 26-52, March.
    17. Berenguer-Rico, Vanessa & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2014. "Summability of stochastic processes—A generalization of integration for non-linear processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 331-341.
    18. Kramer, Walter & Davies, Laurie, 2002. "Testing for unit roots in the context of misspecified logarithmic random walks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 313-319, February.
    19. Alvaro Escribano & M. Santos & Ana Sipols, 2008. "Testing for cointegration using induced-order statistics," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 131-151, January.
    20. Michael Arghyrou & Virginie Boinet & Christopher Martin, 2004. "Non-linear and non-symmetric exchange-rate adjustment: new evidence from medium- and high-inflation economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:9922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.