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Demand Matters: German Wheat Market Integration 1806-1855 in a European Context

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  • Martin Uebele

Abstract

This study analyzes annual wheat prices in 13 German cities in the years 1806 to 1855, together with wheat price series from 44 other European and American cities. The method used is a dynamic factor model, which allows for distinguishing common price uctuations on international and national levels. I find a significant increase of price synchronization between German cities and international markets, between the first and the second quarter of the 19th Century. This is probably mainly due to the increased demand for food imports in Britain and the disappearance of political barriers, as well as economies of scale and gradual improvements to existing transportation technology. Within Germany, I find increasing common price uctuations in Mannheim and Munich, which arguably refl ects a customs union effect. Tree ring records as indicators of general plant growth conditions indicate that comovement was not driven by exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Uebele, 2010. "Demand Matters: German Wheat Market Integration 1806-1855 in a European Context," CQE Working Papers 1110, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  • Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:1110
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    File URL: https://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/cqe/sites/cqe/files/CQE_Paper/CQE_WP_11_2010.pdf
    File Function: Version of February, 2010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kopsidis, Michael & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2012. "Agricultural Productivity Across Prussia During the Industrial Revolution: A Thünen Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(03), pages 634-670, September.
    2. Martin Uebele & Daniel Gallardo-Albarrán, 2015. "Paving the way to modernity: Prussian roads and grain market integration in Westphalia, 1821-1855," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(1), pages 69-92, March.
    3. Keller, Wolfgang & Shiue, Carol Hua, 2013. "The Trade Impact of the Zollverein," CEPR Discussion Papers 9387, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Uebele, Martin, 2011. "National and international market integration in the 19th century: Evidence from comovement," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 226-242, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    market integration; 19th Century; dynamic factor analysis; wheat prices; Germany;

    JEL classification:

    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N71 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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