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La `dominancia� alimentaria de la pol�tica monetaria, biotecnolog�a y pol�tica de tierras

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  • Carlos Gustavo Cano

Abstract

Durante los �ltimos dos a�os los bancos centrales que siguen el esquema de `inflaci�n objetivo� incumplieron sus metas. La causa no fue la insuficiencia o posibles yerros de la pol�tica monetaria, cuyos instrumentos est�n dise�ados para responder a movimientos de la inflaci�n originados en cambios de la demanda interna de cada econom�a. En vez de ello, la desviaci�n frente a las metas se explica primordialmente por el disparo de los precios internacionales de los alimentos, en particular granos y oleaginosas. Este choque de oferta, ante el cual la pol�tica monetaria resulta ineficaz, se debi�, a su turno, a dos factores fundamentales: (a) El notable crecimiento de algunos de los mercados emergentes de mayor tama�o - en especial China e India -, y su consiguiente tr�nsito masivo hacia un r�gimen alimenticio mucho m�s rico en prote�na animal. (b) La fuerte reacci�n de Estados Unidos y Europa ante el cambio clim�tico, materializada en la producci�n y utilizaci�n de biocombustibles, tratando de mitigar sus nocivos efectos. Ambos elementos emplean las mismas materias primas: granos y oleaginosas. A pesar de que la recesi�n ha desinflado el impacto sobre sus precios, es muy probable que, una vez se consolide la recuperaci�n de la econom�a global, en el futuro cercano aquellos vuelvan a generar severas presiones sobre la inflaci�n. A fin de satisfacer la demanda, la oferta agr�cola deber� aumentar 40 por ciento para el 2030 y 70 por ciento para el 2050. La siembra de nuevas �reas - en su mayor�a en Am�rica Latina y �frica -, estar� condicionada a la disponibilidad de agua; a la adopci�n de biotecnolog�as apropiadas; y al uso de tierras que, siendo aptas, se hallan ociosas o subutilizadas en ineficientes sistemas de ganader�a extensiva. En conclusi�n: (a) Las metas del banco central se deben formular en t�rminos de la inflaci�n b�sica o `core inflation�. Esto es, excluyendo los precios de los alimentos y los combustibles, a fin de evitar el riesgo de que la pol�tica monetaria se desv�e hacia el tratamiento de choques externos no controlables por la misma, y lesione de paso la estabilidad del sector real y el empleo. (b) A la larga s�lo el cambio t�cnico estar� en capacidad de vencer las presiones sobre los precios de los alimentos. (c) Se requiere inducir, mediante mecanismos impositivos, la creaci�n de mercados de tierras a fin de ampliar la frontera cultivable a costos razonables, en contraposici�n a la acumulaci�n de su tenencia para prop�sitos �nicamente especulativos o rent�sticos.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Gustavo Cano, 2009. "La `dominancia� alimentaria de la pol�tica monetaria, biotecnolog�a y pol�tica de tierras," Borradores de Economia 5727, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005727
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2009. "Exploring the Price Spike," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(01), pages 1-6.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflaci�n; alimentos; biotecnolog�a; tierra;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics

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