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La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Jorge Andrés Tamayo

    ()

El ritmo de crecimiento económico colombiano exhibió una tendencia decreciente a lo largo del siglo XX. Una explicación basada en el modelo de Solow (una declinación del cambio técnico) nos parece demasiado alejada de la discusión de política económica. De otra parte, varios modelos de crecimiento endógeno no son pertinentes para el caso colombiano por diversas razones (por el mismo comportamiento ya mencionado de la tasa de crecimiento de la economía colombiana o porque son diseñados para países en la frontera tecnológica). En cambio, un modelo reciente de Lucas nos parece pertinente y genera un comportamiento de u" invertida para la tasa de crecimiento económico (y, por tanto, una tendencia decreciente después de alcanzar su cima). Este trabajo intenta sacar provecho de sus alcances y limitaciones para interpretar el crecimiento colombiano del siglo XX, esto es, sus tendencias y "ciclos económicos largos" o diferencias positivas y negativas entre la tendencia generada al aplicar el modelo y el crecimiento observado en diferentes períodos específicos."

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 005111.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 21 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005111
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