IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/005111.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Esteban Posada
  • Jorge Andrés Tamayo

Abstract

El ritmo de crecimiento económico colombiano exhibió una tendencia decreciente a lo largo del siglo XX. Una explicación basada en el modelo de Solow (una declinación del cambio técnico) nos parece demasiado alejada de la discusión de política económica. De otra parte, varios modelos de crecimiento endógeno no son pertinentes para el caso colombiano por diversas razones (por el mismo comportamiento ya mencionado de la tasa de crecimiento de la economía colombiana o porque son diseñados para países en la frontera tecnológica). En cambio, un modelo reciente de Lucas nos parece pertinente y genera un comportamiento de u" invertida para la tasa de crecimiento económico (y, por tanto, una tendencia decreciente después de alcanzar su cima). Este trabajo intenta sacar provecho de sus alcances y limitaciones para interpretar el crecimiento colombiano del siglo XX, esto es, sus tendencias y "ciclos económicos largos" o diferencias positivas y negativas entre la tendencia generada al aplicar el modelo y el crecimiento observado en diferentes períodos específicos."

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2008. "La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas," Borradores de Economia 5111, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra534.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
    2. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ananth Seshadri, 2014. "Human Capital and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2736-2762, September.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    4. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
    5. McGrattan, Ellen R. & Prescott, Edward C., 2009. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2454-2476, November.
    6. Robert E. Lucas, 2009. "Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Feldstein, Martin, 1997. "How Big Should Government Be?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(2), pages 197-213, June.
    8. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Andrea Rojas A., 2008. "El crecimiento económico colombiano: datos nuevos y modelos viejos para interpretar el período 1925-2000," Borradores de Economia 480, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
    10. Tamura, Robert, 1991. "Income Convergence in an Endogenous Growth Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 522-540, June.
    11. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    12. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian & Álvaro José Riascos & James A. Schmitz, 2006. "Latin America in the rearview mirror," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 30(Sep).
    13. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, 2005. "Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," Borradores de Economia 358, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    15. Carlos Esteban Posada & Miguel Urrutia Montoya, 2004. "Un Siglo de Crecimiento Económico," Investigación Económica en Colombia 3692, Fundación Pondo.
    16. Temple, Jonathan & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 1998. "Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1343-1362, July.
    17. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal en el Siglo XX en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 318, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, December.
    19. De Long, J. Bradford, 1992. "Productivity Growth and Machinery Investment: A Long-Run Look, 1870–1980," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 307-324, June.
    20. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    21. Andres Erosa & Tatyana Koreshkova & Diego Restuccia, 2006. "On the aggregate and distributional implications of productivity differences across countries," Working Paper 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuna & Paola Andrea Vaca González, 2012. "La educación como motor de desarrollo integral: la importancia del capital humano en el crecimiento económico y social de largo plazo," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 9936, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andres Tamayo, 2008. "La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas," Borradores de Economia 534, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Robert E. Lucas, 2009. "Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    4. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Jerry & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2019. "Economic growth in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-35.
    5. Seung Mo Choi, 2008. "How Large are Learning Externalities? Measurement by Calibration," Working Papers 2008-26, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    6. Tamura, Robert, 2006. "Human capital and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 26-72, February.
    7. Ngai, L. Rachel, 2004. "Barriers and the transition to modern growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1353-1383, October.
    8. Mandal, Abir & Regmi, Narendra & Tamura, Robert, 2021. "Education, Fertility and Incomes in the States of India: Demographic Transition," MPRA Paper 110378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Juan Ricardo Perilla Jimenez, 2019. "Mainstream and evolutionary views of technology, economic growth and catching up," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 823-852, July.
    10. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 143-179.
    11. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
    12. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, May.
    13. Olsson, Ola & Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 2005. "Biogeography and long-run economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 909-938, May.
    14. Antonio Navas-Ruiz, 2008. "On Trade Openness, Institutional Change and Economic Growth," Working Papers halshs-00326394, HAL.
    15. Berthold Herrendorf & Ákos Valentinyi, 2012. "Which Sectors Make Poor Countries So Unproductive?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 323-341, April.
    16. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546.," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346, Elsevier.
    17. Restuccia, Diego & Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2008. "Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 234-250, March.
    18. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    19. Diego Restuccia, 2004. "Barriers to Capital Accumulation and Aggregate Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 225-238, February.
    20. Oded Galor, 2010. "The 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture-Comparative Economic Development: Insights From Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 1-44, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Producto per cápita; capital humano; sectores rural y urbano; costo social.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:005111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.