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Balance Fiscal Estructural Y C�Clico Del Gobierno Nacional Central De Colombia 1980-2002

Author

Listed:
  • Hern�n Rinc�n
  • Jenny Berthel
  • Miguel G�mez

Abstract

Tener conocimiento del balance fiscal estructural es importante tanto para el an�lisis como para la formulaci�n ex ante de la pol�tica fiscal. En este documento proponemos una metodolog�a para la determinaci�n del balance estructural de las finanzas del Gobierno Nacional Central, basados en el procedimiento est�ndar del FMI. La metodolog�a se construye a partir del c�lculo del balance estructural total y primario, con sus correspondientes balances c�clicos, para el per�odo 1980-2002. Utilizamos diferentes t�cnicas econom�tricas para la estimaci�n de par�metros relevantes. Los resultados indican que a comienzos de la d�cada de los ochenta y de los noventa el balance fiscal estructural del gobierno estuvo por encima del observado, es decir, el gobierno tuvo un menor d�ficit o mayor super�vit, en una magnitud entre 0.1% y 0.4% del PIB, debido a los movimientos c�clicos del PIB y/o las desviaciones de los precios del crudo por encima de su tendencia de largo plazo y/o por las menores erogaciones por transferencias territoriales. Para el resto del per�odo de an�lisis sucedi� lo contrario, es decir, el balance estructural del gobierno estuvo por debajo del observado, en una magnitud entre 0.2% y 0.4% del PIB. La magnitud de las diferencias lleva a la conclusi�n que el balance fiscal del gobierno central de Colombia es b�sicamente de naturaleza estructural, es decir, que no basta con que el pa�s crezca a tasas iguales al potencial sino que se necesita mucho m�s esfuerzo (en ingresos y gastos) para ajustar las finanzas del gobierno.

Suggested Citation

  • Hern�n Rinc�n & Jenny Berthel & Miguel G�mez, 2003. "Balance Fiscal Estructural Y C�Clico Del Gobierno Nacional Central De Colombia 1980-2002," Borradores de Economia 2038, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Natalia Salazar Ferro & Diego Prada H., 2004. "El balance estructural del gobierno central en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, March.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada & Carlos Caballero Arg�ez, 2003. "Una Nota Sobre Los Elementos Coyunturales Y Estructurales Del Deficit Fiscal En El Caso Colombiano Reciente," Borradores de Economia 3718, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Mr. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance The IMF’s Methodology," IMF Working Papers 1999/095, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauricio Cárdenas & Roberto Junguito B. & Mónica Pachón B., 2006. "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes in Colombia : the Effects of the 1991 Constitution," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance Estructural;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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