Do Computers Make Output Harder to Measure?
In recent years, U.S. productivity growth accelerated sharply in manufacturing, but has remained sluggish in the most computer-intensive service industries. This paper explores the possibility that information technology is generating output that is increasingly hard to measure in non-manufacturing industries, which contributes to the divergence in industry productivity growth rates. Our results suggest that measurement error in 13 computer-intensive, non-manufacturing industries increased between 0.74 and 1.57 percentage points per year in the 1990s, which understates annual aggregate productivity growth by 0.10 to 0.20 percentage points in the 1990s. This adds to an estimated 0.22 to 0.30 percentage point error from the increasing share of aggregate output in these hard-to-measure industries. Thus, increasing measurement problems may understate aggregate productivity growth by an additional 0.32 to 0.50 percentage points per year in the 1990s and play an important role in understanding recent productivity trends at the industry level.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2000|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Technology Transfer, Vol. 26, No. 4, 2001, pages 295-321.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 845 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022-6679|
Phone: (212) 759-0900
Fax: (212) 980-7014
Web page: http://www.conference-board.org/publications/publicationlistall.cfm?sort=type#EconomicWorkingPaper
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1999.
"What explains the dramatic changes in cost and profit performance of the U.S. banking industry?,"
99-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1999. "What explains the dramatic changes in cost and profit performance of the U.S. banking industry?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1999. "What Explains the Dramatic Changes in Cost and Profit Performance of the U.S. Banking Industry?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- James A. Kahn & Jong-Soo Lim, 1998. "Skilled Labor-Augmenting Technical Progress in U. S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1281-1308.
- Kahn, J. & Lim, J.S., 1997. "Skilled Labor-Augmenting Technical Progress in U.S. Manufacturing," RCER Working Papers 437, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- James A. Kahn & Jong-Soo Lim, 1998. "Skilled labor-augmenting technical progress in U.S. manufacturing," Staff Reports 47, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- James A. Kahn & Jong-Soo Lim, 1997. "Skilled labor -- augmenting technical progress in U.S. manufacturing," Research Paper 9738, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hill, T P, 1977. "On Goods and Services," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 23(4), pages 315-338, December.
- Jorgenson, D.W. & Stiroh, K., 1994. "Computers abd Growth," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1707, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Francesco Caselli, 1999. "Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 78-102, March.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 261, OECD Publishing.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The Productivity Slowdown: Is A Growing Unmeasurable Sector The Culprit?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 367-370, August.
- Lawrence Slifman & Carol Corrado, 1999. "Decomposition of Productivity and Unit Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 328-332, May.
- Lawrence Slifman & Carol Corrado, 1996. "Decomposition of productivity and unit costs," Staff Studies 1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frank R. Lichtenberg, 1993. "The Output Contributions of Computer Equipment and Personnel: A Firm- Level Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Surendra Gera & Wulong Wu & Frank C. Lee, 1999. "Information technology and productivity growth: an empirical analysis for Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 384-407, April.
- Berndt, Ernst R. & Morrison, Catherine J., 1995. "High-tech capital formation and economic performance in U.S. manufacturing industries An exploratory analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-43, January.
- Berndt, Ernst R. & Morrison, Catherine J., 1992. "High-tech capital formation and economic performance in U.S. manufacturing industries : an exploratory analysis," Working papers 3419-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Stiroh, Kevin J, 1998. "Computers, Productivity, and Input Substitution," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 175-191, April.
- Donald Siegel, 1997. "The Impact Of Computers On Manufacturing Productivity Growth: A Multiple-Indicators, Multiple-Causes Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 68-78, February.
- Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril92-1, 01.
- Charles Steindel, 1992. "Manufacturing productivity and high-tech investment," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 39-47.
- Martin Neil Baily & Robert J. Gordon, 1988. "The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 347-432.
- Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "Has the surge in computer spending fundamentally changed the economy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 27-42.
- Brynjolfsson, Erik. & Hitt, Lorin M., 1994. "Information technology as a factor of production : the role of differences among firms," Working papers 3715-94. CCSTR ; #173., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin Hitt, 1997. "Information Technology as a Factor of Production: The Role of Differences Among Firms," Working Paper Series 201, MIT Center for Coordination Science.