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Beyond sectors. A subsectoral analysis of historical occupational data and their relation to economic growth

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Abstract

This paper presents a subsectoral analysis of historical occupational data. The approach employs compositional data analysis and new metrics derived from properties of ternary plots, and it offers a more detailed and complex and dynamic image of the relationship between economic growth and structural change. As a result of this, it highlights a series of core sub-sectoral patterns, which were until now often overlooked by traditional sectoral analysis or invisible due to higher levels of data aggregation. We find that longer historical series confirm Rodrik’s pattern of ‘premature deindustrialisation’ (Rodrik 2016), including the rapid movement towards tertiary subsectors for later developers and the diminishing gender gaps in structural change. We develop a typology to identify which subsectors are most correlated to economic growth, and discuss what that may indicate in terms of theories of structural change. The empirical examination of economic development presented in this chapter will add historical depth to ongoing academic and policy-oriented discussions on the nature and contribution of structural changes to economic development.

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  • Alexis Litvine & Stanley Hinton, 2024. "Beyond sectors. A subsectoral analysis of historical occupational data and their relation to economic growth," Working Papers 36, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge, revised 03 Jul 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmh:wpaper:36
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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