Curva de Beveridge, Vacantes y Desempleo: Chile 1986-2002.II
In this paper we provide a vacancyindex for Chile for the period 1986 to the second quarter of 2002. This index is calculated using the number of jobs offered in newspapers’ advertisements of the 5 main urban areas. This information, in addition with employment and labor force data, is used to draw and estimate a Beveridge Curve (CB). We used this curve to analyze the sources of unemployment volatility. The stability of the curve along the sample is a signal of the anticyclical trayectory of the unemployment. On the other hand, shifts in this curve allow to conclude that unbalanced shocks have affected the labor market. The main conclusions of this paper are: i) the index is reasonably unbiased, despite of the fact that some statistical problems were not completely corrected; ii) there is no evidence to reject the stability of the CB (or the anticyclical behavior of the unemployment) at the national level during the sample, including the recent period; iii) in the context of an impulse-response analysis, a transitory innovation of vacancies has permanent impact on employment; iv) the index may be considered as a leader indicator of GDP (in one quarter) and employment (in half a year); v) these aggregated results are strongly influenced by the high weight of Santiago (the Capital) over the total; vi) outside the Capital, the CB seems to have been more unstable, specially in Concepción-Talcahuano and Temuco (both located in the South of the country), suffering a shift in the early 90s. However, it is not possible to conclude that these displacements are caused by sample problems in the data, by sectorial shocks or by non-linearity in the employment-vacancies elasticity.
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