Overshootings and Reversals: The Role of Monetary Policy
This paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises taking into account the role of a fragile banking system. It analyzes a large set of currency crises that led to real exchange rate undervaluations from a sample of 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. First, the paper evaluates whether tight monetary policy increases substantially the probability of reversing the undervaluation through nominal appreciation of the exchange rate rather than through higher inflation. Second, using panel data, the paper estimates the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates. We find that tight monetary policy facilitates the reversal of the real exchange rate through nominal appreciation rather than inflation. In contrast, when the economy is also facing a banking crisis, tight monetary policy may not have the same effect.
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- Baig, Taimur & Goldfajn, Ilan, 2002.
"Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises; The Case of Asia," IMF Working Papers 98/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia," Textos para discussão 399, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Mario I. Blejer & Alfredo M. Leone & Pau Rabanal & Gerd Schwartz, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-2.
- Mario Blejer & Alfredo Leone & Pau Rabanal & Gerd Schwartz, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 10, pages 439-464 Central Bank of Chile.
- Mario I. Blejer & Alfredo M. Leone & Pau Rabanal & Gerd Schwartz, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 116, Central Bank of Chile.
- Gerd Schwartz & Pau Rabanal & Mario I. Bléjer & Alfredo Mario Leone, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs," IMF Working Papers 01/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
- Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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