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The Problem of False Positives in Automated Census Linking: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century New York's Irish Immigrants

Author

Listed:
  • Anbinder, Tyler

    (George Washington University)

  • Connor, Dylan

    (Arizona State University)

  • O Grada, Cormac

    (University College, Dublin)

  • Wegge, Simone

    (College of Staten Island and The Graduate Center—CUNY)

Abstract

Automated census linkage algorithms have become popular for generating longitudinal data on social mobility, especially for immigrants and their children. But what if these algorithms are particularly bad at tracking immigrants? Using nineteenth-century Irish immigrants as a test case, we examine the most popular of these algorithms—that created by Abramitzky, Boustan, Eriksson (ABE), and their collaborators. Our findings raise serious questions about the quality of automated census links. False positives range from about one-third to one-half of all links depending on the ABE variant used. These bad links lead to sizeable estimation errors when measuring Irish immigrant social mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Anbinder, Tyler & Connor, Dylan & O Grada, Cormac & Wegge, Simone, 2021. "The Problem of False Positives in Automated Census Linking: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century New York's Irish Immigrants," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 568, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:568
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    Cited by:

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    3. Zhu, Ziming, 2022. "Like father like son? Intergenerational immobility in England, 1851-1911," Economic History Working Papers 117588, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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