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Three "Seismic Shifts" in the Global Economy and Policy Challenges

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  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo, Former Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan)

Abstract

Three "seismic" shifts in the global economy are identified. (1) There is a persistent dampening fallout from the property bubbles, busts, and the ensuing financial crises in developed economies. (2) Information communication technology becomes ubiquitous and unfortunately employment -unfriendly. This impact is most severely felt in developed economies, but it will eventually impact on emerging economies as well. (3) Many economies have shifted or are close to shift from the demographic bonus phase of young and growing population to the demographic bonus phase of aging population. Most developed economies have turned this corner, and many emerging economies are about to follow suit. Finally, their policy implications are explored both in business cycles and long-run growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2016. "Three "Seismic Shifts" in the Global Economy and Policy Challenges," CARF F-Series CARF-F-379, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf379
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    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/old/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/F379.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    4. R. Jason Faberman & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2012. "Is there a skills mismatch in the labor market?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul.
    5. Kiyohiko Nishimura & Elod Takáts, 2012. "Ageing, property prices and money demand," BIS Working Papers 385, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshihiro Tamai & Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very-Long-Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 48-74, Fall.
    2. Tamai, Yoshihiro & Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G., 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very Long Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 65, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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