IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12877.html

On the Unintended Consequences of Critical Mineral Bans: The Exploration Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Rabah Arezki
  • Frederick van der Ploeg
  • Rick van der Ploeg

Abstract

Critical mineral maps portray known resource endowments as fixed geographic facts, yet the resource base is endogenous to both demand conditions and institutional factors. The prevailing framing of critical mineral scarcity ignores the extent to which resources are discovered only when it is profitable to do so. Using a two-region model of endogenous reserves, we show that exploration investment and discovered reserves respond to global demand shocks, world resource prices, and the institutional environment facing international resource companies, including explicit and implicit taxes on exploration and on exports, including export bans and restrictive trade measures in pursuit of value-chain upgrading. While export bans may be attractive as industrial policy, they risk being self-defeating: by discouraging exploration investment, they reduce the very resource base on which industrial ambitions depend. We document the global proliferation of export restrictions on critical minerals and discuss the policy implications for developing countries navigating the twin pressures of resource nationalism and the green transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg & Rick van der Ploeg, 2026. "On the Unintended Consequences of Critical Mineral Bans: The Exploration Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 12877, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12877.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van Der Ploeg, 2025. "Escaping the critical minerals curse," Post-Print hal-05603850, HAL.
    3. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    4. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    5. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    7. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2023. "On the new geopolitics of critical materials and the green transition," CEPR Press Book Chapters, in: Gollier, Christian & Rohner, Dominic (ed.), Peace not Pollution: How Going Green Can Tackle Climate Change and Toxic Politics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
    9. Anne D. Boschini & Jan Pettersson & Jesper Roine, 2007. "Resource Curse or Not: A Question of Appropriability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(3), pages 593-617, September.
    10. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Cursed by Resources or Institutions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1117-1131, August.
    11. Bosker, Maarten & Van Den Herik, Else-Marie & Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2025. "The (Un)intended Consequences of Export Restrictions: Evidence from Indonesia," CEPR Discussion Papers 20791, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    2. Le Clech, Néstor A., 2024. "Policy market orientation, property rights, and corruption effects on the rent of non-renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Yilanci, Veli & Aslan, Murat & Ozgur, Onder, 2021. "Disaggregated analysis of the curse of natural resources in most natural resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Cai, Chunlin & Li, Ning, 2023. "The threshold effect of export sophistication on natural resources-trade diversification nexus," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    5. Zuo, Na & Zhong, Hua, "undated". "The Effect of Resource Wealth on Regional Economic Development in China," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291114, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Janus, Thorsten, 2024. "Does export underreporting contribute to the resource curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Ruba Aljarallah, 2021. "An Analysis of the Impact of Rents from Non-renewable Natural Resources and Changes in Human Capital on Institutional Quality: A Case Study of Kuwait," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 11(5), pages 224-234.
    8. Amir Mousavi & Jeremy Clark, 2021. "The effects of natural resources on human capital accumulation: A literature survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1073-1117, September.
    9. Zuo, Na & Zhong, Hua, 2020. "Can resource policy reverse the resource curse? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Chi-Swian Wong, 2021. "Science Mapping: A Scientometric Review on Resource Curses, Dutch Diseases, and Conflict Resources during 1993–2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-48, July.
    11. Nicoletta Corrocher & Camilla Lenzi & Marie-Louise Deshaires, 2020. "The curse of natural resources: an empirical analysis of European regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1694-1708, December.
    12. Roberto Dell’Anno & Majid Maddah, 2022. "Natural resources, rent seeking and economic development. An analysis of the resource curse hypothesis for Iran," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 47-65, January.
    13. Graham A. Davis, 2020. "Large-sample evidence of income inequality in resource-rich nations," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 193-216, July.
    14. Muhamad, Goran M. & Heshmati, Almas & Khayyat, Nabaz T., 2021. "How to reduce the degree of dependency on natural resources?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Khan, Muhammad Atif & Gu, Lulu & Khan, Muhammad Asif & Oláh, Judit, 2020. "Natural resources and financial development: The role of institutional quality," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Sun, Xiaohua & Ren, Junlin & Wang, Yun, 2022. "The impact of resource taxation on resource curse: Evidence from Chinese resource tax policy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2024. "Oil discovery, boom‐bust cycle and manufacturing slowdown: Evidence from a large industry level dataset," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 406-431, May.
    19. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & Raveh, Ohad & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Oil discoveries and protectionism: Role of news effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    20. Akram, Vaseem & Ali, Jabir, 2022. "Do countries converge in natural resources rents? Evidence from club convergence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.