IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12813.html

Tax-Induced Emigration: Who Flees High Taxes? Evidence from the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • José Victor C. Giarola
  • Olivier Marie
  • Frank Cörvers
  • Hans Schmeets

Abstract

We study a policy change in the Netherlands that unexpectedly reduced the duration of preferential tax treatment for high-skilled migrants from specific countries. Using administrative data, we document substantial out-migration responses driven entirely by the top 1% of earners, with no detectable response below the 95th percentile. Among the 95-99th percentile, previously internationally mobile workers also leave sooner, particularly to countries offering tax breaks, consistent with tax shopping behavior and pointing to distortionary effects of international tax competition. Increased tax intake from remaining workers offsets revenue lost from departing high earners, making the policy fiscally cost-neutral.

Suggested Citation

  • José Victor C. Giarola & Olivier Marie & Frank Cörvers & Hans Schmeets, 2026. "Tax-Induced Emigration: Who Flees High Taxes? Evidence from the Netherlands," CESifo Working Paper Series 12813, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12739_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacopo Bassetto & Giuseppe Ippedico, 2026. "Tax Incentives and Return Migration," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26097, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    2. Ufuk Akcigit & John Grigsby & Tom Nicholas & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Taxation and Innovation in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 329-385.
    3. Schmidheiny, Kurt & Slotwinski, Michaela, 2018. "Tax-induced mobility: Evidence from a foreigners' tax scheme in Switzerland," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 293-324.
    4. David R. Agrawal & Dirk Foremny, 2019. "Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 214-232, May.
    5. Enea Baselgia & Isabel Z Martínez, 2025. "Mobility Responses to Special Tax Regimes for the Super-Rich: Evidence from Switzerland," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(668), pages 1388-1409.
    6. David R. Agrawal & William H. Hoyt, 2018. "Commuting and Taxes: Theory, Empirics and Welfare Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(616), pages 2969-3007, December.
    7. Advani, Arun & Burgherr, David & Summers, Andy, "undated". "Taxation and Migration by the Super-Rich," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 630, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Enrico Rubolino & Tommaso Giommoni, 2023. "Taxation and Mobility: Evidence from Tax Decentralization in Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10655, CESifo.
    9. Martínez, Isabel Z., 2022. "Mobility responses to the establishment of a residential tax haven: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lukas Althoff & Christiane Szerman, 2026. "Blindly Discriminating: The GI Bill and Racial Inequality," CESifo Working Paper Series 12739, CESifo.
    2. repec:hpe:journl:y:2025:v:253:i:2:p:91-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lisa Marie Timm & Massimo Giuliodori & Paul Muller, 2025. "Tax Incentives for Migrants with Mid-level Earnings: Evidence from the Netherlands," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 42-79, July.
    4. Advani, Arun & Burgherr, David & Summers, Andy, "undated". "Taxation and Migration by the Super-Rich," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 630, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Marko Köthenbürger & Costanza Naguib & Christian Stettler & Michael Stimmelmayr, 2023. "Income Taxes and the Mobility of the Rich: Evidence from US and UK Households in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 10376, CESifo.
    6. Enrico Rubolino & Tommaso Giommoni, 2023. "Taxation and Mobility: Evidence from Tax Decentralization in Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10655, CESifo.
    7. Lawrence M. Kessler & Donald Bruce, 2024. "A SALT on real estate? Housing market and migration responses to the limit on the state and local tax deduction," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 683-704, October.
    8. Marius Brülhart & Jayson Danton & Raphaël Parchet & Jörg Schläpfer, 2025. "Who Bears the Burden of Local Taxes?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 464-505, February.
    9. Jacopo Bassetto & Giuseppe Ippedico, 2026. "Tax Incentives and Return Migration," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26097, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    10. Jacopo Bassetto & Giuseppe Ippedico, 2024. "Tax incentives and return migration," Discussion Papers 2024-05, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. López-Laborda Julio & Rodrigo Fernando, 2022. "Mobility of Top Income Taxpayers in Response to Regional Differences in Personal Taxes: Evidence from Spain," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 152-169, January.
    12. Lavecchia, Adam & McKercher, Robert & Tazhitdinova, Alisa, 2026. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Impact of Taxation on Canadian Inter-Provincial Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 18544, IZA Network @ LISER.
    13. David R. Agrawal, 2026. "Lessons on State and Local Income Taxes from the Twenty-first Century and Challenges for the Future," CESifo Working Paper Series 12470, CESifo.
    14. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Mathilde Muñoz & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    15. Enea Baselgia & Isabel Z Martínez, 2025. "Mobility Responses to Special Tax Regimes for the Super-Rich: Evidence from Switzerland," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(668), pages 1388-1409.
    16. Mathilde Muñoz, 2021. "Do European Top Earners React to Labour Taxation Through Migration ?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03252899, HAL.
    17. Mathilde Munoz, 2019. "Do European Top Earners React to Labour Taxation Through Migration ?," PSE Working Papers hal-02876987, HAL.
    18. Martinez, Isabel Z., 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Tax Cuts: Mobility after a Local Income and Wealth Tax Reform in Switzerland," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145643, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Salla Kalin & Ilpo Kauppinen & Kaisa Kotakorpi & Jukka Pirttilä, 2022. "Migration and tax policy:Evidence from Finnish full population data," Working Papers 1, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    20. Andreas Haufler & Yukihiro Nishimura, 2023. "Taxing mobile and overconfident top earners," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 913-947, August.
    21. David R. Agrawal & Dirk Foremny & Clara Martínez-Toledano, 2020. ""Paraísos fiscales", wealth taxation, and mobility," Working Papers 2020/15, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.