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Trends and Persistence in the Number of Hot Days: Some Multi-Country Evidence

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • Nieves Carmona-González

Abstract

This paper uses fractional integration methods to obtain comprehensive evidence on the evolution of the number of hot days, defined as those with temperatures above 35 °C, in 54 countries from various regions of the world over the period from 1950 to 2022. The variable analysed is a key indicator of global warming, and the chosen modelling approach is most informative about the behaviour of the series as it provides evidence on the possible presence of time trends, on whether or not mean reversion occurs, and on the degree of persistence. In brief, the findings indicate the presence of considerable heterogeneity among the countries studied and highlight the importance of tailored climate policies based on both global and local factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2025. "Trends and Persistence in the Number of Hot Days: Some Multi-Country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 11925, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11925
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11925.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, James W., 2004. "Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-286.
    2. James W. Taylor, 2004. "Smooth transition exponential smoothing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 385-404.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    number of hot days; climate change; persistence; fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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