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The Devil Is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms

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  • Manuel Menkhoff

Abstract

This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of German firms, I elicit (i) the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and (ii) firms’ exposure to such an event. I consistently find across different empirical approaches that a higher probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment, particularly for firms that report higher exposure to the event. I attribute less than half of the investment response to changes in firms' subjective first and second moments. In a quantitative heterogeneous firm model calibrated to match the survey evidence, firms' concern with tail risk makes fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Menkhoff, 2025. "The Devil Is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 11848, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11848
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic tail risk; rare events; firm expectations; investment.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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