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Economic Shocks and the Electoral Fortunes of Effective Legislators

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  • Davide Cipullo
  • Barton E. Lee

Abstract

Analyzing U.S. House elections (2002-2010), measures of legislators’ effectiveness, and exogenous increases in Chinese import competition, we document a conditional relationship between legislative effectiveness and electoral success. In districts ex-posed to large trade shocks, incumbent legislators who were more effective legislators were more likely to be reelected compared to less effective incumbents. Instead, in districts exposed to small trade shocks, more effective incumbents were less likely to be reelected. Our results are driven by trade shocks affecting voters’ preferences for policy change and, in turn, their support for effective legislators. Our results have consequences for the effectiveness of future legislators.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Cipullo & Barton E. Lee, 2025. "Economic Shocks and the Electoral Fortunes of Effective Legislators," CESifo Working Paper Series 11791, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11791
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafael Di Tella & Dani Rodrik, 2020. "Labour Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 1008-1030.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Tejada, Oriol, 2018. "A Reform Dilemma in polarized democracies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 148-158.
    3. Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2021. "A Commitment Theory of Populism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9473, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    legislative effectiveness; China shock; elections; trade shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

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