IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Catching the Next Big Wave: Are the Observed Behavioral Dynamics of the Baby Boomers Forcing Us to Rethink Regional Travel Demand Models?


  • Goulias, Konstadinos G
  • Blain, Larry
  • Kilgren, Neil
  • Michalowski, Timothy
  • Murakami, Elaine


Aging American baby-boomers create a variety of new policy contexts and problems. Their changing demand for transportation services may be positive or negative depending on the preparedness of our institutions and the baby boomers’ behavior. In this paper we describe this potential change in demand through an analysis of individual longitudinal histories over long period (1989 to 2003) exploring the impacts of person-specific changes (e.g., entry to and exit from the labor force) household changes (e.g., relocation and dissolution) and land use. To do this we use the Puget Sound Transportation Panel (PSTP), which is a record of approximately 20,000 person diaries of Seattle residents that provided reports of their travel in two-days repeatedly for ten repeated contacts (waves). In the analysis we study within-household dynamics and the impact events of within-household change have on individual well as household behavior. We employ focus groups to extract behavioral themes, Latent Class Cluster analysis to identify groups of behavior, and an array of regression models of change to identify key determinants underlying behavioral dynamics. Key findings include need to focus on employment, heterogeneity in the impact of land uses, and a significant affect of household composition. All this implies a need for models that can handle more diverse behavior and the need to accommodate employment status and within household demographics in the forecasting models.

Suggested Citation

  • Goulias, Konstadinos G & Blain, Larry & Kilgren, Neil & Michalowski, Timothy & Murakami, Elaine, 2007. "Catching the Next Big Wave: Are the Observed Behavioral Dynamics of the Baby Boomers Forcing Us to Rethink Regional Travel Demand Models?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9f83x03p, University of California Transportation Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt9f83x03p

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Yoon, Seo Youn & Golob, Thomas F. & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2008. "A California Statewide Exploratory Analysis Correlating Land Use Density, Infrastructure Supply and Travel Behavior," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5bb12732, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Fengming Su & Robert Noland, 2010. "An analysis of trip chaining among older London residents," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 105-123, January.
    3. repec:eee:jotrge:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:111-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Luis Miranda-Moreno & Martin Lee-Gosselin, 2008. "A week in the life of baby boomers: how do they see the spatial–temporal organization of their activities and travel?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 629-653, August.
    5. Weis, Claude & Axhausen, Kay W., 2009. "Induced travel demand: Evidence from a pseudo panel data based structural equations model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 8-18.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt9f83x03p. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.