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Technology, Sustainability, and Marketing of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses in 2020-2040

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  • Burke, Andrew
  • Sinha, Anish Kumar

Abstract

The objective of this study is to project the introduction of battery-electric and fuel cell technologies into the medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicle markets and to identify which markets will be most suitable for each of technologies and the factors (technical, economic, operational) which will be most critical to their successful introduction. The use of renewable energy sources to generate electricity and produce hydrogen are key considerations of the analysis. The present status of the battery-electric and hydrogen/fuel cell technologies are reviewed in detail and the futures of these technologies are projected. The design and performance of various types of buses and trucks are described based on detailed simulations of the various electrified vehicles. The total cost of ownership (TCO) of each bus/truck type were calculated using EXCEL spreadsheets and their market prospects projected for 2020-2040. It was concluded that before any of the electrified vehicles can be cost competitive with the corresponding diesel powered vehicle, the unit cost of batteries must be $80-100/kWh and the unit cost of the fuel cell system must be $80-100/kW. The long term economics of battery-electric buses and trucks looks more favorable than that for the fuel cell/hydrogen option if the range requirement (miles) for the vehicle can be met using batteries. This is primarily due to the significantly lower energy operating cost ($/mi) using electricity than hydrogen. View the NCST Project Webpage

Suggested Citation

  • Burke, Andrew & Sinha, Anish Kumar, 2020. "Technology, Sustainability, and Marketing of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses in 2020-2040," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7s25d8bc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7s25d8bc
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    1. Gray, Nathan & O'Shea, Richard & Smyth, Beatrice & Lens, Piet N.L. & Murphy, Jerry D., 2024. "An assessment of decarbonisation pathways for intercontinental deep-sea shipping using power-to-X fuels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    2. Romeo Danielis & Mariangela Scorrano & Manuela Masutti & Asees Muhammad Awan & Arsalan Muhammad Khan Niazi, 2024. "The Economic Competitiveness of Hydrogen Fuel Cell-Powered Trucks: A Review of Total Cost of Ownership Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Jahangir Samet, Mehdi & Liimatainen, Heikki & Pihlatie, Mikko & van Vliet, Oscar Patrick René, 2024. "Levelized cost of driving for medium and heavy-duty battery electric trucks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    4. Vishnu Vijayakumar & Alan Jenn & Lewis Fulton, 2021. "Low Carbon Scenario Analysis of a Hydrogen-Based Energy Transition for On-Road Transportation in California," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-27, November.
    5. Levent Özlü & Dilay Çelebi, 2024. "Electrifying Freight: Modeling the Decision-Making Process for Battery Electric Truck Procurement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Zhexuan Mu & Fuquan Zhao & Fanlong Bai & Zongwei Liu & Han Hao, 2024. "Evaluating Fuel Cell vs. Battery Electric Trucks: Economic Perspectives in Alignment with China’s Carbon Neutrality Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Mingyue Hu & Xiao Wu & Yue Yuan & Chuanbo Xu, 2024. "Competitive Analysis of Heavy Trucks with Five Types of Fuels under Different Scenarios—A Case Study of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Moreno Sader, Kariana & Biswas, Sayandeep & Jones, Rob & Mennig, Marian & Rezaei, Reza & Green, William H., 2025. "Battery electric long-haul trucking with overnight charging in the United States: A comprehensive costing and emissions analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    9. Giuseppe Aiello & Salvatore Quaranta & Rosalinda Inguanta & Antonella Certa & Mario Venticinque, 2024. "A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework for Zero Emission Vehicle Fleet Renewal Considering Lifecycle and Scenario Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward, 2024. "Energy and environmental costs in transitioning to zero and low emission trucks for the Australian truck Fleet: An industry perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    11. Carlo Cunanan & Manh-Kien Tran & Youngwoo Lee & Shinghei Kwok & Vincent Leung & Michael Fowler, 2021. "A Review of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Powertrain Technologies: Diesel Engine Vehicles, Battery Electric Vehicles, and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, June.

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