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Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-duty Truck Technology, Markets, and Policy Assessments for California

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  • Burke, Andrew PhD
  • Miller, Marshall PhD

Abstract

This report assesses zero emissions medium- and heavy-duty vehicle technologies, their associated costs, projected market share, and possible policy mandates and incentives to support their adoption. Cost comparisons indicate that battery-electric transit buses and city delivery trucks are the most economically attractive of the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) based on their break-even mileage being a small fraction of the expected total mileage. These ZEVs using fuel cells are also attractive for a hydrogen cost of $5/kg. The most economically unattractive vehicle types for ZEV adoption are long-haul trucks and inter-city buses. Developing mandates for buses and trucks will be more difficult than for passenger cars for several reasons, including the large differences in the size and cost of the vehicles and the ways they are used in commercial, profit-oriented fleets. The best approach will be to develop separate mandates for classes of vehicles that have similar sizes, cost characteristics, use patterns, and ownership/business models. These mandates should be coupled to incentives that vary by vehicle type/class and by year or accumulated sales volume, to account for the effects of expected price reductions with time.

Suggested Citation

  • Burke, Andrew PhD & Miller, Marshall PhD, 2020. "Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-duty Truck Technology, Markets, and Policy Assessments for California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7n68r0q8, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7n68r0q8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhao, Hengbing & Burke, Andrew, 2015. "Modelling and Analysis of Plug-in Series-Parallel Hybrid Medium-Duty Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt37z105pr, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vuban Chowdhury & Farzana Mehzabin Tuli & Suman Kumar Mitra, 2024. "Sustainable Shift: Analyzing Drivers for Low-Carbon Transportation Adoption in California’s Heavy-Duty and Off-Road Sectors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Pahwa, Anmol & Jaller, Miguel, 2022. "A cost-based comparative analysis of different last-mile strategies for e-commerce delivery," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Jaller, Miguel & Pahwa, Anmol, 2023. "Coping with the Rise of E-commerce Generated Home Deliveries through Innovative Last-mile Technologies and Strategies," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5t76x0kh, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Education; Zero emission vehicles; electric vehicles; fuel cell vehicles; heavy duty vehicles; medium trucks; buses; operating costs; incentives; policy analysis;
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