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Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya

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  • Kramon, Eric
  • Hamory, Joan
  • Baird, Sarah
  • Miguel, Edward

Abstract

The impact of urban migration on ethnic politics is the subject of long-standing debate. “First-generation” modernization theories predict that urban migration should reduce ethnic identification and increase trust between groups. “Second-generation” modernization perspectives argue the opposite: Urban migration may amplify ethnic identification and reduce trust. We test these competing expectations with a three-wave panel survey following more than 8,000 Kenyans over a 15-year period, providing novel evidence on the impact of urban migration. Using individual fixed effects regressions, we show that urban migration leads to reductions in ethnic identification; ethnicity's importance to the individual diminishes after migrating. Yet urban migration also reduces trust between ethnic groups, and trust in people generally. Urban migrants become less attached to their ethnicity but more suspicious. The results advance the literature on urbanization and politics and have implications for the potential consequences of ongoing urbanization processes around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Kramon, Eric & Hamory, Joan & Baird, Sarah & Miguel, Edward, 2022. "Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7ws369zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt7ws369zg
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melson, Robert & Wolpe, Howard, 1970. "Modernization and the Politics of Communalism: A Theoretical Perspectve1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 1112-1130, December.
    2. Biniam E. Bedasso, 2017. "For richer, for poorer: why ethnicity often trumps economic cleavages in Kenya," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(151), pages 10-29, January.
    3. Edward Miguel & Joan Hamory, 2009. "Individual Ability and Selection into Migration in Kenya," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-45, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Sep 2009.
    4. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    5. Benn Eifert & Edward Miguel & Daniel N. Posner, 2010. "Political Competition and Ethnic Identification in Africa," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 494-510, April.
    6. Ndegwa, Stephen N., 1997. "Citizenship and Ethnicity: An Examination of Two Transition Moments in Kenyan Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 599-616, September.
    7. Jeffrey R Kling & Jeffrey B Liebman & Lawrence F Katz, 2007. "Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 83-119, January.
    8. Baird, Sarah & Hamory, Joan & Miguel, Edward, 2008. "Tracking, Attrition and Data Quality in the Kenyan Life Panel Survey Round 1 (KLPS-1)," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3cw7p1hx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Weiss, Tim & Lounsbury, Mike & Bruton, Garry, 2024. "Survivalist Organizing in Urban Poverty Contexts," OSF Preprints 3mecq, Center for Open Science.

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