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Modelling the effects of Brexit on the British economy

Author

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  • Minford, Patrick

    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Zhu, Zheyi

    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

We estimate the short run effects of Brexit border disruption on the UK economy. We estimate a structural VAR for the UK where Brexit effects are identified by the dates of Brexit events, the referendum and the exit from the single market. We find evidence of short run effects of Brexit: temporary effects on GDP, exports and imports (slightly negative),and on inflation and interest rates (slightly positive). These effects are consistent with modest disruption from introducing a border with the EU- a border due to be made barrier-free and seamless by the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Previous work using other countries as comparators is vulnerable to identification difficulties. We also survey earlier modelling work on the long run effects of evolving policies of free trade, UK-sourced regulation and liberalised immigration. Models of long run trade suggest the emergence of substantial gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Patrick & Zhu, Zheyi, 2023. "Modelling the effects of Brexit on the British economy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gang Chen & Xue Dong & Patrick Minford & Guanhua Qiu & Yongdeng Xu & Zequn Xu, 2022. "Computable General Equilibrium Models of Trade in the Modern Trade Policy Debate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 271-309, April.
    2. Ashton, Paul & MacKinnon, Neil & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "The economics of unskilled immigration," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Patrick Minford & Yongdeng Xu, 2018. "Classical or Gravity? Which Trade Model Best Matches the UK Facts?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 579-611, July.
    4. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
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