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Financial Sector Shocks, External Finance Premium and Business Cycle

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  • Zhang, Hongru

    () (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

This paper extends Nolan and Thoenissen (2009), hence NT, model with an explicit financial intermediary that transfer funds from households to entrepreneurs subject to a well defined loan production function. The loan productivity shock is treated as the supply side financial disturbance. Together with NT.s net worth shock that resembles the credit demand perturbation, both of the two-sided shocks are robustly extracted by combining the model with US quarterly data. The two shocks are found to be tightly linked with the post-war recessions. Each recession happens when both of the two shocks become contractionary. A few potential economic downturns seem to have been avoided because of the expansion of credit which offset the simultaneous contraction of entrepreneurial net wealth. This new introduced shock has significant explanatory power for the variance of EFP and the model simulated EFP holds high correlation with various spreads as proxies for empirical EFP.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Hongru, 2011. "Financial Sector Shocks, External Finance Premium and Business Cycle ," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2011/7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Dib, Ali, 2008. "Bank lending, credit shocks, and the transmission of Canadian monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-176.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE modeling; corporate net wealth shock; loan productivity shock; external financing; shock construction; historical decomposition; variance decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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