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Continuous Cumulative Prospect Theory and Individual Asset Allocation

  • Davies, G.B.
  • Satchell, S.E.
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    We implement the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) framework (Tversky and Kahneman 1992) into a model of individual asset allocation, building on earlier work by Hwang and Satchell (2003) where they derive explicit formulae for the asset allocation decision using a loss aversion utility function. We apply Prelec’s probability weighting function (1998) to continuous distributions and derive the formulae for the optimal asset allocation between risky and safe assets. US equity returns data are used to examine the feasible parameter space. The earlier results of Hwang and Satchell are confirmed and the more complex model is compatible with observed equity proportions. The parameters are highly interconnected, but feasible combinations indicate that more inverse-S shaped deviations from linear probability weightings are associated with lower risk taking behaviour.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0467.pdf
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    Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0467.

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    Length: 54
    Date of creation: Nov 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0467
    Note: EM
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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    7. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    8. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    9. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Jack L. Knetsch & Richard H. Thaler, 1991. "Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter.
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    12. Knight, J.L. & Stachell, S.E. & Tran, K.C., 1995. "Statistical Modeling of Asymetric Risk in Asset Returns," Papers 95-3, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics.
    13. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
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    15. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    16. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-61, November.
    17. Fennema, Hein & van Assen, Marcel, 1998. "Measuring the Utility of Losses by Means of the Tradeoff Method," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 277-95, December.
    18. Han Bleichrodt & Jose Luis Pinto, 2000. "A Parameter-Free Elicitation of the Probability Weighting Function in Medical Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(11), pages 1485-1496, November.
    19. Camerer, Colin F & Ho, Teck-Hua, 1994. "Violations of the Betweenness Axiom and Nonlinearity in Probability," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 167-96, March.
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