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The Demise of the Swiss Interest Rate Puzzle


  • Kugler, Peter

    () (University of Basel)

  • Weder, Beatrice


In this paper we analyzed the violations of UIP for the Swiss Franc against the Dollar, the Euro, the Yen, the NEWLINE Pound and the Canadian Dollar using recent data up to fall 2008. This exercise provides the following main NEWLINE results : first the Swiss interest rate puzzle disappeared, i.e. mean returns on Swiss Franc assets are no longer NEWLINE systematically and significantly lower (as in the 1980 – 1998 sample) when compared jointly with other NEWLINE major currencies in the 1999 to 2008 period. Second and in contrast to earlier evidence we failed to find NEWLINE evidence that geopolitical crises lead to an appreciation of the Swiss Franc in the last ten years. Third even NEWLINE the short run validity of UIP cannot be rejected for the Swiss Franc against the five currencies for the 1999 – NEWLINE 2008 sample. Unfortunately our attempt to locate the time of change and the currencies involved by the NEWLINE application of tests for structural breaks with unknown break point did not lead to clear cut conclusion for the NEWLINE Euro and the Dollar, the two most important foreign currencies from a Swiss perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Kugler, Peter & Weder, Beatrice, 2009. "The Demise of the Swiss Interest Rate Puzzle," Working papers 2009/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2009/04

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Peter Kugler & Beatrice Weder, 2002. "The Puzzle of the Swiss Interest Rate Island: Stylized Facts and a New Interpretation," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(01), pages 49-64, March.
    3. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler, 2015. "Is Switzerland an Interest Rate Island after all? Time Series and Non-Linear Switching Regime Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 5628, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    3. Sophia Latsos & Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Net Foreign Asset Positions and Appreciation Expectations on the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen," CESifo Working Paper Series 5490, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Sophia Latsos & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 261-280, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


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