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Potential credit exposure on interest rate swaps

Author

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  • Ian Bond
  • Gareth Murphy
  • Gary Robinson

Abstract

An analytical analogue to the Monte Carlo techniques previously used by banking supervisors to assess the potential credit exposure of interest rate swaps is developed, which permits a more thorough examination of swap exposure. This is done by using the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) one-factor model of the yield curve to generate interest rate paths from which swap credit exposure paths can be determined. Even with such a relatively simple interest rate process, the patterns of credit exposure are found to be more complex than the supervisors previous techniques allow: they vary with the level of interest rates, the slope of the yield curve and the volatility of the short rate - all factors which are ignored in the supervisors risk measurement methodology - and have a significantly non-linear relationship with swap maturity. In conclusion, market traders and regulators need to be alert to these factors in determining the appropriate level of capital to hold as protection against counterparty default.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Bond & Gareth Murphy & Gary Robinson, 1994. "Potential credit exposure on interest rate swaps," Bank of England working papers 25, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:25
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1994/wp25.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Fisher & Juna Vega, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of M4 in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 21, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duffee, Gregory R., 1996. "On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 805-833, June.

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