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Linking Granger Causality and the Pearl Causal Model with Settable Systems


  • Halbert White
  • Karim Chalak

    () (Boston College)

  • Xun Lu

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)


The causal notions embodied in the concept of Granger causality have been argued to belong to a different category than those of Judea Pearl's Causal Model, and so far their relation has remained obscure. Here, we demonstrate that these concepts are in fact closely linked by showing how each relates to straightforward notions of direct causality embodied in settable systems, an extension and refinement of the Pearl Causal Model designed to accommodate optimization, equilibrium, and learning. We then provide straightforward practical methods to test for direct causality using tests for Granger causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Halbert White & Karim Chalak & Xun Lu, 2010. "Linking Granger Causality and the Pearl Causal Model with Settable Systems," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 744, Boston College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:744

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Florens, J P & Mouchart, M, 1982. "A Note on Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 583-591, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2015. "Testing subspace Granger causality," Economics Working Papers 1495, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2014. "Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 558-568.
    3. White, Halbert & Xu, Haiqing & Chalak, Karim, 2014. "Causal discourse in a game of incomplete information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 45-58.
    4. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2016. "The Linear Systems Approach to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 875, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

    More about this item


    Causal Models; Conditional Exogeneity; Conditional Independence; Granger Non-causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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